Nigeria posted total export earnings of $143.51bn from crude oil, natural gas, and refined petroleum products between 2023 and 2025, highlighting the continued reliance on the hydrocarbon sector for foreign exchange inflows despite ongoing production constraints.
Converted at prevailing exchange rates, the earnings amount to approximately N174.35tn over the three-year period.
Data analysis shows that Nigeria generated $49.83bn in 2023, translating to about N31.45tn at an average exchange rate of N633 per dollar. In 2024, earnings declined to $45.51bn, equivalent to roughly N70.9tn at an average rate of N1,472/$1. By 2025, revenue increased to $48.17bn, estimated at N72tn using an average exchange rate of N1,479/$1, based on figures from the Central Bank of Nigeria.
Despite the strong aggregate performance, crude oil export earnings weakened in 2025, raising concerns about the resilience of the economy. Receipts from crude exports fell by $5.31bn year-on-year, dropping from $36.85bn in 2024 to $31.54bn in 2025—a decline of 14.41 per cent.
The drop has been linked to persistent production shortfalls, global oil price volatility, and structural inefficiencies in the petroleum sector.
Consequently, Nigeria’s current account surplus narrowed to $14.04bn in 2025 from $19.03bn recorded in the previous year, underscoring the country’s vulnerability to fluctuations in crude oil performance.
Analysts note that challenges such as pipeline vandalism, oil theft, and underinvestment continue to constrain output and impact government revenues.
However, improvements in domestic refining are beginning to reshape the sector. The operational expansion of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery is altering Nigeria’s traditional trade model, with increasing local processing of crude oil and exports of refined petroleum products.
This shift is reflected in trade figures, with the country’s goods account surplus rising to $14.51bn in 2025 from $13.17bn in 2024, driven largely by higher exports of refined products. The Dangote refinery alone accounted for $5.85bn in export value during the year.
At the same time, reduced dependence on imported fuel provided relief for the economy. Imports of refined petroleum products declined to $10bn in 2025 from $14.06bn in 2024, representing a 28.88 per cent drop and easing pressure on foreign exchange demand.
Nevertheless, broader economic challenges remain. Non-oil imports rose by 13.60 per cent to $29.24bn, indicating sustained reliance on foreign goods and the slow pace of economic diversification.
External financial outflows also increased during the period. Net service outflows climbed to $14.58bn, driven by higher spending on transportation, travel, and insurance, while primary income outflows surged by 60.88 per cent to $9.09bn due to increased dividend repatriation and interest payments to foreign investors.
Remittance inflows and other secondary income sources offered some support, totaling $23.20bn in 2025, slightly below the $24.88bn recorded in 2024.
Meanwhile, the Federal Government has intensified efforts to boost oil production in response to evolving global market conditions. Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Heineken Lokpobiri, urged operators to scale up output through short-term measures such as re-entry programmes and in-field well development.
Although production rose marginally to 1.459 million barrels per day in January 2026 from 1.422 million bpd in December 2025, it has remained below the 1.5 million bpd quota set by OPEC for six consecutive months. Output in February fluctuated between 1.31 million and 1.46 million bpd, still short of the government’s 2 million bpd target.
Lokpobiri also called on oil companies to fast-track Final Investment Decisions to enhance investor confidence and sustain growth in the sector.
